End of year market analysis of Bainbridge Island real estate~

It's been a year with lots of ups and downs for most people in most areas of their lives. That's certainly been true in the real estate world on Bainbridge Island. The good news is that we finished strong, with all the numbers going in the right direction.

The number of listed residential properties dropped to a low we haven't seen since 2006--only 174 home listed as of the end of the year. (January has not yet shown a surge of new listings.) That's down 14.3% from the 203 listed homes in December 2008 and down from the 193 listed in the prior month, November 2009.

That's significant, because supply and demand are always at play here. To search for all properties currently available on Bainbridge Island, click here.

We also saw the numbers of Pended Sales and Closed Sales increase over the end of 2008 by healthy margins. Twenty-two homes closed in Dec. 2009 compared to only 13 in 2008, for a strong increase of almost 70%. Pended sales (those listings in a transaction to sell) jumped from 13 in 2008 to 17 in 2009, another strong 30.8% increase.

However, a single month's activity is only a snapshot, and not a trend, certainly. The following graph from Trendgraphix shows the Listed, Pended and Sold numbers over the course of all 2009:


One interesting correlation that is apparent in this graph is the relationship between pended and sold properties. A 100% correlation would mean that every home with signed paperwork would close--and you can see that we're not there. However, the numbers are getting closer, and my personal observation is that more and more transactions are coming to a happy and successful closing, with fewer Buyer's backing out of their purchases. I was pleased this year to have every transaction I participated in ultimately reach a successful closing. Sometimes the lenders made us all hold our breaths (or our tongues,) but my clients have been able to complete their purchases and sales once we've begun.

There is no question that we are still strongly in a Buyer's Market, which is reflected in the prices properties are selling for. As much as we've gone up and down, we're also going around and around, back to the future. Prices have rolled back to about the 2005 level, in both average and the more reliable median prices. Home owners have watched their equity shrink, and that's a difficult ride to be on, especially since we have become accustomed to expecting prices to continue to rise year after year.

Certainly double-digit appreciation was not sustainable here or anywhere, especially without salaries increasing at the same rate. At the height of the real estate market, which in hindsight seems to have been mid-2006 to mid-2007, most people I knew could not afford to buy the homes they were living in. In that way, the adjustment has been healthy. Unfortunately, you can't take "healthy" to the bank, and it's heartbreaking to see people who need to sell, who can't clear enough at closing to cover their debt load.

I'm an optimistic person, and I believe in both the appeal of Bainbridge Island and the economic health of the Greater Seattle Area. I believe that to sell a home today, the price must be realistic and in line with the current market, it must be well prepared, and professionally represented. Buyers are negotiating from a position of strength, which can be a challenge--one that I welcome representing either side in a transaction. Banks are loaning and rates remain low.

One last item (lots to digest) that I'll write more on another day. The Federal Government has extended the tax credit for first-time home buyers, and for current home owners who meet certain criteria.

Will interest rates go up or down? Will prices stabilize here or take another drop? I'm reading the experts and buckling my seat belt for an interesting journey this year. One thing I know for sure--we'll have more perspective when we look back a year from now. Ironically, my best instinct tells me this is a good time both to buy and sell.

Bainbridge Island competition: A little (strawberry) cannery row? ~

It's a long stretch of the imagination to place John Steinbeck's world onto Bainbridge Island. He's all weathered faces on dust bowl refugees in gritty California neighborhoods. We're all rain on fleece-wearing California refugees hiding out amongst the cedars.

But, now's the time for all good Islanders to bring the worlds together. Our library is calling for submissions to its Bainbridge Island Sketches, a compilation of fictionalized depictions of life here. Change the names, stay under 2,000 words, and revel in the juicy details of your friends and neighbors, the quirkier the better. As the BI Review reported today, "Capture the essence of Bainbridge and its inhabitants in exact and signature details." The great Ann Combs is giving a free workshop on writing the sketches at Eagle Harbor Book Co. this Sunday afternoon at 3. Come on by. I hope to be there with a few of my favorite Bainbridge images and details.

The deadline is October 26th; send entries to Kathleen Thorne thornekm@gmail.com and prepare to win. Selected entries will be read at San Carlos November 1st. That's only fitting, since the majority of our quirkiest residents find their way to San Carlos, many on a regular basis.

I have an additional reward. If any of my clients who have moved to Bainbridge in the last ten years have their entries selected for reading, I'll treat you to your favorite margarita at the San Carlos bar. Get writing!

Third quarter market analysis Bainbridge Island real estate~

We're just now getting the statistics for the end of September, and we're about to start on the final quarter of 2009. Everybody I talk to wants to know the same thing--how's real estate doing on Bainbridge Island.

One bit of information I've analyzed this past week is helpful. It's an Excel spread sheet that shows the listing/pending ratios that we've been tracking on Bainbridge for the last several years. Some real estate analysts believe that comparing the number of total listings to the number of listings in contract will give you a good view of the health of the marketplace.

At the end of September we had 289 total residential listings, with 47 of those houses in a contract to be sold. That's a 16% "absorption rate," which is significant for two reasons. The first is that conventional wisdom is that 16% is seriously a Buyer's market, and that's not news to anyone.

But, the other significance is that the last time we were close to 16% was July of 2007 at 19%. That's when we had crested the top of the market and had our skis pointed downhill. Little did we know then that this was going to be a black diamon run with moguls! By October of 2007 we real estate agents knew the market had dropped; few of us understood that it had fallen off a cliff. When we look back at the numbers, that free fall is apparent. The absorption rate in May of 2007 was 27%, and by October it was 9%. In one quarter we went from 52 homes in contract to 23 . We've pretty much been bouncing along that bottom ever since.

It was hard to know in the period from the summer of 2006 to the summer of 2007 that we were at the very peak of the marketplace. Some indicators were apparent, and looking back now we can see all the signs. It took courage and vision during that year to sell when everyone else was buying, when prices seemed to be rising with no end. But, nothing has no end.

It is hard now to know if we are at the bottom. Prices are still dropping. It takes courage and vision to buy when few are buying. But, prices are at 2005 level, or lower, interest rates are low, and Sellers are eager to sell. Perhaps a year or two from now we'll all know if indeed this is the bottom. If it is, those who buy now will be congratulating themselves.

Advantages of making Bainbridge Island home and playing in Seattle~

It doesn't take much to remind me of the advantages of living on Bainbridge Island. My dear husband and I had a date night in Seattle yesterday, and the reminders were everywhere. We had tickets to "Wicked," at the Paramount, and took an early ferry so we could do some shopping and have dinner before the show.

http://www.stgpresents.org/artists/?artist=910

We walked onto the ferry, and took a leisurely stroll through downtown Seattle. The Seahawks game was getting out, and when we caught a glimpse of the freeway, we could see that traffic was backed up and moving slowly. Event parking at the Paramount was $20 a car. We weren't affected by either of these things. When the play finished a $6 cab ride had us back to the ferry terminal in time for the 9:45 ferry.

Those of us lucky enough to live and work on Bainbridge don't commute into the city every day. Those Islanders who do experience all that Seattle offers, and through their work they are an integral part of that great city. Sometimes it takes an extra effort for the rest of us to make plans, buy tickets and get into the city, but it's such a luxury to have Seattle so nearby.

And, for all of us, it's a joy to return to the peaceful island at the end of the day.

Bainbridge Island to Seattle: most beautiful ferry ride in the US~

Budget Travel magazine has just listed the most beautiful ferry rides in the United States, and the 35-minute ride from Seattle to Bainbridge Island was prominently featured. (We who live on "the rock" tend to think of it as the Bainbridge to Seattle ferry.) Here's the link to the article: http://www.budgettravel.com/bt-dyn/content/article/2009/04/23/AR2009042301954.html

You'll find four pictures featuring the Seattle skyline and the beautiful Puget Sound. They recommend spending time shopping, dining and hiking the trails on Bainbridge. Finally, they recommend staying long enough to make a sunset crossing back to the city, which made me smile since the sun sets around 10 p.m. in the summer! That would make for a great day on the Island.

The grammar of Bainbridge Island real estate~

Today's blog is all about grammar, which seems like an unlikely subject for real estate. Yet, one of an agent's many duties is writing those all-important descriptions of properties, the ones where we're supposed to both accurately describe the premises and capture the imaginations of potential buyers. Clichés abound, and originality can have its problems. Errors slip in more often than not.

I'm a former English teacher raised in a family of English teachers, so I'm hard-wired to be picky. My own pet peeves are the word "separate" spelled "seperate" and the modifier "unique" itself modified. We see the phrase "truly unique" used frequently, as if some property is more than one-of-a-kind.

The Bainbridge Review famously ran an ad for a beach-side property that featured "all day sun on a south-facing dick," which makes you wonder what the neighbors thought, and if the feature would stay with the house--hopefully, not. I've seen ads for mini-tutors, teachers short on patience, no doubt. And, one home was listed as having "gentile" style, much to the agent's chagrin.

The National Association of Realtors insists that the word "realtors" should be both capitalized and followed by a trademark symbol, which usually doesn't happen. Furthermore, many realtors pronounce the word "real-a-tors," which seems wrong on many levels. But the issue I can't get around is whether we should hyphenate "real estate agents." The standard journalistic style books, including those of the venerable New York Times, require compound modifiers to be hyphenated. Ergo, it should be "real-estate agents." I suspect none of us uses that form.

Clearly it's a slow day in real estate, and this Realtor®, looking at the rain, is glad to be a real-estate agent who's staying indoors today.

Harbour Public House on Bainbridge Island named a great seafood dive~

May "Coastal Living Magazine has named our "Pub"--Harbour Public House--as one of America's best seafood dives. Best, yes. But, dive...? In an article called, "America's Best Seafood Dives," they call out two places in Seattle (Lowell's in Pike Place and Spud Fish & Chips in Alki) and one in Gig Harbor (The Tides Tavern), but they recognized our Pub's "seasonal menu...including top-rated fish-and-chips.

My soon-to-be-son-in-law from England, deemed the Harbour Public House "a proper pub," and so it is. From there on a clear day the views of the harbor and marina can stretch all the way to the Seattle skyline and beyond to the Cascades. It's the place our out-of-town visitors always insist on visiting. The beers are cold and on tap, the company is great, and it's almost time for mojitos on the patio. More than one client thinking about moving to Bainbridge Island has "sealed the deal," at the Pub and decided to make Bainbridge home. I'll see you there soon.

Spring comes to Bainbridge Island (finally!)~

I was walking into town on the trail that skips along Eagle Harbor and deposits you at the western-most edge of Winslow Way. The cherry trees on the grounds of Sun Day Cove condominiums are in bloom right now, and I wanted my fill of their beauty.

What I didn't anticipate was a poem carefully printed out in a rosy font and secured to one of the branches in a mostly watertight plastic sleeve.

If you have a chance, stop by to stand under the blossoms and read what's there for yourself. If that's not possible, here it is, a lovely poem by AE Housman:

Loveliest of Trees

Loveliest of trees, the cherry now

Is hung with bloom along the bough,

And stands about the woodland ride

Wearing white for Eastertide.

Now of my threescore years and ten,

Twenty will not come again,

And take from seventy springs a score,

It only leaves me fifty more.

And since to look at things in bloom

Fifty springs are little room,

About the woodlands I will go

To see the cherry hung with snow.

Since I am closer to "threescore years and ten" than to the poet's "twenty score," I certainly can't count on another fifty springs. I'm glad I used one day this spring to enjoy the view, the sunshine and a lovely walk with family members, and that I stopped, not to smell the roses, but to read a poem hanging like ripe fruit for the reading. I want to thank whoever planted it there for me and other passers-by. Imagine if we found poems wherever we travelled!

Spring on Bainbridge Island~

Yesterday I spotted my first hummingbird. The daffodils planted in the center of the roundabout are in full, glorious bloom, or would be if the sun shone on them. The shrubberies are turning lime green as the leaves pop out anew. The lawn is growing and we await dry weather to mow it (I say we, but I mean my hubby.)

I'll be driving around the island tomorrow on the lookout for my favorite sign of Spring--newborn baby lambs. One friend tells me her brood hens have hatched out one chick, with 38 more to go! It's getting to be time to plant peas.

At 6 o'clock the sun still shines, somewhere that is. Not so much here, where clouds persist, and drizzles are the order of most days. On sunny days we rush to wash our cars, and the next day they muddy up again.

Is this enough to make us long for Santa Barbara? Yes, but only in a place to visit sort of way. I love those "markers" of one season melding into another. I'd like a buttery, daffodil, baby-chick fuzzy yellow sweater to wear under my black raincoat. 'Tis March on Bainbridge Island.

Green building and home improvement can mean greenbacks to you~

Homeowners often ask me what they can do to maximize the value of their homes for resale. My usual answer is to do the things you will enjoy or benefit from first.

President Obama's stimulus package has given us a reason to invest in our homes in a way that will help save our planet , making our houses more efficient, and that will give you cash back to help pay for the work. An article in The Christian Science Monitor clearly lays out the advantages of updating now.

Stimulus Plans Brings Green Home Improvement Tax Breaks
By G. Jeffrey MacDonald

Energy-saving systems for the attic, basement, and in between have effectively gone on sale, courtesy of the United States Congress.

Here's the link: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0223/p13s01-wmgn.html. (I'm indebted to Sustainable Bainbridge for calling my attention to this article and posibility.)

The home improvements that seem best for Bainbridge Island are installing a heat pump, replacing low-e windows, adding insulation top and bottom, and perhaps changing out an inefficient water heater. I'm going to look into that last one myself; water heaters typically last about a dozen years. While I'm at it, I'm going to have the plumbing changed to install a recirculating system so I don't have to run water down the drain waiting for it to heat up.

Obama's package raises the ceilings on tax credits available, so there is real money possible, which will make the effort involved worth doing. The CSM article also gives links to other sites that help with navigating the system. Note, that the credits are valid only this year and next.