Update on Bainbridge Island real estate market trends: when the bottom is/isn't the bottom~

The stock market can make quick turns up and down. If you're still brave enough to look, you know that well.

Real property by its very nature is steadier. More time and effort is required to buy and to sell. Illiquid is the term, even if you're buying waterfront.

The constant conversation topic is "where's the bottom?" Sellers and agents find it hard to set a "realistic" price on a home that a year ago could have fetched more. It's especially hard when you can point to real numbers on a spread sheet that show that the lot and construction costs exceed the current market value.

But, market value is what an informed buyer acting with free will is willing to pay. Right now buyers are skittish. Many homes are being sold today at what we perceive to be real deals--screaming bargains--if we're looking in the rear view mirror.

The question is, what kind of deal will they look like in a year from now. And the answer is, nobody knows.

The funny thing is that at the top of the market everyone wants to climb on board. We have lots of belief in the endless ride up. But, that may be the worst time to buy. At the bottom of the market, we're immobilized by our fears of the endless fall down. However, this may be a good time to buy.

So, the real question might need to be, where do I want to make my home? How long will I plan to stay? Do I need to move now? No one wants to overpay, but when you negotiate a careful price on a property in good repair that meets your needs, in this market it's best to take the long view.